Signs of Life?

Last time the Phillies were discussed in this space, Roy Halladay had pitched a perfect game following an eked out 3-2 win the night before. Not much of note has happened since then, except the fact that the Phillies are out of first place, having been shut out 1-0 by the Marlins following Halladay's perfecto then losing three straight to the Braves, the new team atop the NL East. Chase Utley is having the slump of his career and has to simply wait it out, and Ryan Howard isn't too far behind. That, coupled with the fact that many of the other bats have fallen silent, Jimmy Rollins is still disabled, and Placido Polanco was out for a few games, has spelled offensive disaster.

Chase Utley, wondering where the hits have gone
(Photo courtesy of Wilfredo Lee/AP)

All is not lost, however. The Phillies won 3-2 last night over the Padres, the team with the best record in the National League. Roy Halladay followed up his perfecto with a fine seven inning, two run performance, and he even singled and scored the first Phillies run of the night on a two run homer by Shane Victorino in the 3rd. Victorino later doubled and scored the go ahead run on Jayson Werth's bases loaded walk off Padres starter Mat Latos in the 5th. This was only the third win for the Phillies in two weeks, but the offensive has ended the streak of repeated shutouts. The team still hasn't scored more than three runs in a games since their May 21st 5-1 victory over the Red Sox, the night before Daisuke Matsuzaka nearly no-hit the Phillies and the slump of all slumps began.

 (Photo courtesy of David Warren/Philly.com staff photographer)

In the midst of all this offensive impotence, the strength of the pitching staff has been a bit overlooked. Pitching was arguably the biggest question mark going into this season for the Phillies, but the rotation has for the most part been solid through these hellish last two weeks.

We all know the offense will come out of this. Contact has been made more frequently, the runs have started trickling in, and luck will start swinging back towards the Phillies soon enough. The Braves have been on an absurd hot streak, and it would certainly be nice for that to end soon. I don't have as much confidence in the Braves getting a lot worse as I do in the Phillies getting a lot better, but I do believe things will even out. I'd like to think that by the All-Star break in a little over a month, we'll all look back on these last two weeks and wonder where this hiccup in an otherwise great season came from.

2010 Jimmy Rollins, We Hardly Knew Ye Redux

For the first time since the home opener introductions on April 12, the Phillies were back to their regular lineup in its regular order. Cole Hamels was once again pitching, and all looked right for the Phillies entering interleague play against a struggling Red Sox. I got home in the middle of another nerve wracking 9th inning, just in time to see J.C. Romero walk Adrian Beltre to load the bases with David Ortiz on deck as a pinch hitter. It's a wonderful thing that David Ortiz is no longer the feared slugger he once was, otherwise the ball he hit to straightaway centerfield would have easily been a grand slam that tied the game at 5-5. Instead, Shane Victorino caught the ball to end the game. All seemed good for the Phillies to me, until I read the first recap. Then I discovered that Jimmy Rollins had strained his right calf. Again.

Rollins left in the 6th with a re-strained right calf.

(Photo courtesy of Steven M. Falk/Philly.com staff photographer)

Before I get to the latest in the injury problems for the 2010 Phillies, let's rewind a bit. Where I last left you, Roy Halladay had thrown a complete game loss to the Pirates last Tuesday. This followed a big outing by Kyle Kendrick and the offense on Monday, which saw Kendrick pitch eight innings and the offense score 12 runs to destroy the Pirates 12-2. This followed the weekend sweep of the Brewers, who looked every bit the 2nd to last place team that they currently are. Coming off that and the big win on Monday, Halladay's CG loss took the wind of out the Phillies sails going into a two games series against the Cubs.

The first of those games was another tough loss that saw another wasted effort by Jamie Moyer, who pitched seven innings and gave up only two runs. At this point, I have to say that Moyer, who was demoted to the bullpen last year and had three offseason surgeris, is the frontrunner for comeback player of the year. Hopefully he continues his ageless success. Still, the Phillies only managed one run and lost 4-1.

Thursday afternoon, they managed to score four runs on the long ball, with Chase Utley effortlessly hitting a baseball into the right field seats in the 1st and Jimmy Rollins coming up with a clutch three run homer to break the 1-1 ball game in the 6th. However, Joe Blanton, who mostly mowed down the Cubs through the first six innings, gave up two more runs in the 7th and the game was tied 4-4 on a homer given up by Antonio Bastardo in the 8th. Ibanez came through with a clutch single to make it 5-4, and Jose Contreras had an epic save that followed a hit batsman, a single, two strikeouts, and a pop out. Whew.

Now we can talk about last night, the kickoff bash of 2010 interleague play. The Red Sox came to Philadelphia hoping to continue their hot streak at Citizens Bank Park of recent years, and ran into the wall of Cole Hamels, who had looked an awful lot like the 2008 Cole Hamels in his last four starts. He pitched seven innings, gave up one run, and struck out eight. The offense was keyed by homers Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth, the latter of whom continues to show why the Phillies should pay him lots of money for many years. Between those long balls and Hamels' ace-like performance, the Phillies won 5-1 after the bullpen gave fans a few heart palpitations for good measure.

 Cole Hamels, apparently possessed by some sort of demon

(Photo courtesy of Stephen M. Falk/Philly.com staff photographer)

The hitch in the game was the aforementioned re-injury to Jimmy Rollins in the 6th. This was his first game back in the leadoff spot, and probably his last for a few days at the very least. He's saying all the right things and swears that it wasn't nearly as bad as the first time he strained it. For now, he'll most likely rest tonight and tomorrow and then the Phillies will see how he's feeling. I thought I was done saying this for the season, but once again: get well soon, Jimmy.

A Sausage Fest

After a fairly boring week for Phillies baseball that saw two snow/rain postponements in Colorado, the Phillies batters have been on fire, continuing to score runs at the scorching pace at which they began the season. The Phillies have scored 19 runs in two games, and are now one behind their free swinging series opponents in total runs in the NL. Hopefully that will change today.

The sausage race, a highlight of Brewers home games

(Photo courtesy of mlb.com)

Rewinding a little bit, last Wednesday was supposed to be a double header for the Phillies and Rockies, after Tuesday's game was postponed. Wednesday's afternoon game was played as scheduled, but the heavy precipitation came back and the night game was again postponed. The afternoon was a rough one, where Roy Halladay managed to pitch into the 7th inning while getting out of jams left and right and only giving up one run up until that point. He might have pitched out of the 7th inning if not for some errors and a few bad pitches which ended up tying the game up at 3-3. J.C. Romero and Danys Baez managed to keep it tied for the next two innings, aided by an insane amount of luck (read, hard line drives hit directly at Phillies). Chad Durbin still kept it tied in the 9th, but came out again for the 10th and promptly gave up a walk off homer to catcher Miguel Olivo. This was Olivo's 5th hit of the game, so it's probably good the Phillies didn't have to face him again Wednesday night.

(Photo courtesy of Ed Andrieski/AP)

Moving on to the sausage fest at Miller Park, Jamie Moyer was back on the mound for the first time after pitching his historic two hit shutout against the Braves a week before. He had another outing with several solid innings and one bad one, where he gave up three homers, luckily all solo shots. He passed the 500 homer mark with the second of those three, making him the second pitcher ever to do so. As I've mentioned before, the other pitcher is Phillies great Robin Roberts with 505, and Moyer should pass him in the next three or four starts, so keep an eye out for that. It should be mentioned that behind Moyer and Roberts on that list is no shabby group of pitchers. Todd Zolecki pointed out that, "rounding out the top 10 are Ferguson Jenkins (483), Phil Niekro (482), Don Sutton (472), Frank Tanana (448), Warren Spahn (434), Bert Blyleven (430), Steve Carlton (414) and Randy Johnson (411)." If that's not good company for a pitcher, I'm not sure what is. Anyhow, other than those three home runs and a few runs that could have been saved had Chase Utley not committed an error in the 7th, Moyer had himself a solid outing. The offense provided more than enough support, including some fine production by the bottom of the order and homers by Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez. The Phillies, wearing shiny powder blue throwback unis, took this one 9-5.

Ryan Howard, homering in the first

(Photo courtesy of Morry Gash/AP)

Joe Blanton came to the mound yesterday afternoon and, except for three pitches, pretty much dominated the Brewers lineup. Unfortunately those three pitches were hit out of the park for five runs. One has to keep in mind that Blanton is still in recovery mode after his recent stint on the DL, so he should only get better as the season goes on. The offense came through again, with the bottom of the order pulling their weight and then some, which they had also done Friday night. As a good example of this, Paul Hoover, the back up back up catcher, scored three runs after scoring two the previous game. How many runs had this journeyman scored in his entire nine year career up until this point? Why, I'm glad you asked. The answer is four. That's right, he scored more runs in his first two starts this year for the Phillies than he did in his entire career up until now. In addition to that, Victorino continued his recent destruction of opposing pitchers, going three for six with a single, double, and homer and driving in four runs. He now is second only to triple crown contender Andre Ethier in RBI for the NL, and that's all out of the leadoff spot. That's a tribute both to Shane's hitting and the productivity of the bottom of the Phillies order. The Phillies won 10-6, despite a nerve wracking bottom of the 9th where Jose Contreras finally struck out Rickie Weeks and Craig Counsell to end the game and end his first career save.

(Photo courtesy of H. Rumph Jr./AP)

For now, Jose Contreras had better keep pitching the way he has so far because he is the team's closer. Brad Lidge has returned to the DL, after the Phillies announced he was only day to day following an MRI that showed no serious damage to his elbow. Unfortunately, the inflammation that has kept him from pitching for the past week does not seem to want to go away. His time on the DL has been made retroactive to May 10th, so he will be eligible to pitch again on May 25th, and will hopefully get whatever cortisone or joint lubrication injections he needs to be back before then. Lidge's few appearances offered a tantalizing glimpse at what might be if Lidge is indeed healthy again, and I still believe his arm has life left in it. For the sake of this bullpen, let's hope so. Otherwise Ruben Amaro Jr. and the rest of the Phillies' front office might be busier than they planned come this year's trade deadline.

A Loss and a Contract

There isn't too much about last night's game to make a Phillies fan happy. Roy Halladay had his first loss. Interestingly enough, in three career starts in San Francisco, Halladay has given up exactly five earned runs each time. The Phillies offense seemed equally cursed last night, and came up with a less than pitiful performance, considering how many opportunities they had to score. They left the bases loaded three times, and the only run they scored was on a ground out, and even that needed a double steal by Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco following a rare walk of Polanco (only his second of the season). I have to give credit where credit is due, and the Giants offense and pitching were both effective. It was a tough game to watch on all accounts, and if it hasn't come time for this already, I imagine Charlie's going to have a bit of a chat with the team before long.

(Photo courtesy of Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)

Now that that bad news is out of the way, it's time to talk about something that happened yesterday of much greater significance than one bad game. That something was the biggest contract in franchise history, handed out to Ryan Howard: a five year extension worth a guaranteed $125 million, plus an option for a sixth year that would bring the total dollar value to $138 million. I have mixed feelings about this. I have written in this space before that Ryan Howard is overrated, but he still remains a great player. Even if all the numbers in the world show that Howard should not be paid such large sums, the market would undoubtedly net him at least as much if he had become a free agent after next season. In the short term, this does not change the payroll flexibility for the Phillies, since Howard will not receive a the bump in pay to $25 million until 2014. Additionally, I have no problem with him being paid $20 million a year in the short term, as the market demands. I, along with most everyone else watching this, do have concerns about Howard being paid $25 million a year when he's 34, 35, and 36 years old. However, what's done is done, and only time will tell now if this deal is a huge success or a huge burden for the Phillies. In the immediate future, on the other hand, this deal puts the spotlight squarely on on another player who is slated to become a free agent after this season: Jayson Werth.

 (Photo courtesy of Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)

The looming free agency of Werth has long be a subject of discussion, and I wrote a while ago that he is worthy the value people are assigning to him. It has been something of an accepted fact in many circles of Phillies analysts that Werth will walk after this year and become the subject of yet another Red Sox-Yankees bidding war. The Phillies organization itself has not conceded defeat, however. Even yesterday, as many immediately jumped to the conclusion that this Howard deal means a definite farewell to Werth, Ruben Amaro hinted that this was not necessarily so. Todd Zolecki also wrote that he's "gotten the sense recently that the Phillies think they can sign Jayson Werth to a contract extension." I would have no problem with the team raising the payroll ceiling to accommodate this. It will be interesting to see how the Werth situation develops in the coming months, especially in light of the Howard deal. If nothing else, the Howard deal means that the Ruben Amaro and the front office see much of this current team as the core for many years to come, and it remains to be seen if Werth will be a part of that or not.

(Photo courtesy of Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The Bullpen Rears Its Ugly Head

We knew it couldn't last forever. The offense and bullpen simply could not cover up forever the fact that every starter not named Halladay has gone 6 or fewer innings in each of his starts. The offense didn't get it going until the 6th inning, other than yet another homer by Utley early on. They scored 3 more runs in the 6th, but Shane Victorino left the bases loaded, which would become one of many crucial stranding of runners throughout the game. Still, at the time the Phillies were up 4-1 against a lackluster Nationals offense, Ryan Zimmerman-less, that had only managed one unearned run up until that point, despite the fact that J.A. Happ walked 6 men. He may have a 0.00 ERA through 10.1 IP, but he has a pretty poor WHIP, or walks and hits per innings pitched, at 1.65. Just shows how some of the more traditional stats like ERA don't tell the whole story.

Anyway, on most days, going into the 7th with a 4-1 score against the Nationals would have been just fine. Only it became 4-2 with Bastardo pitching. A little worrisome but not terrible. Then it came apart in the 8th. Danys Baez gave up a home run to Adam Dunn, his first of the year, to lead off the inning. 3 batters later, after walking Ivan Rodriguez, an injured Ryan Zimmerman hobbled to the plate (okay, I'm exaggerating) as a pinch hitter, and of course hit a home run. 5-4 Nationals. Bad, but hey, this is the Phillies offense that scored 64 runs through 8 games so far this season. So after the Phillies were retired in the bottom of the 8th, it was up to Ryan Madson to hold it to a 1 run lead for the top of the order coming up in the bottom of the inning. Instead, he continued the first Phillies bullpen collapse of 2009, allowing batters on 2nd and 3rd for Rodriguez to bat them in with a single. 7-4 Nationals. Still, we believed when Victorino led off the bottom of the 9th with a 405 foot homer and Polanco followed with a single. Then Utley, Howard, and Werth were retired in order. 7-5 Nationals.

(Photo courtesy of Yong Kim/Inquirer staff photographer)

There's nothing left to do after a game like this but dust off and move on. The pitching was ugly, no doubt about that. Roy Halladay will be back on the mound tomorrow, and ideally that will give the bullpen much needed rest after today's implosion. As for the rest of the starters, Hamels has his issues but nothing major as of yet. Kendrick is clearly not going to last very long in the rotation, especially with Charlie moving Halladay up to tomorrow from Saturday, since there was an off day this week. This sets up the possibility that Kendrick's next scheduled start can simply be skipped with another off day next week. Joe Blanton should be close to recovered by then. Jamie Moyer's next start will be against the Marlins on Saturday, and it will be interesting to see how he fares against that lineup. In his last start against the Fish last year, he pitched 7 innings and gave up 1 hit, striking out 4. It will also be his day to make history, becoming the first non-knuckleballer in major league history to start more than one game at his age or older.

(Photo courtesy of Pat Sullivan/AP)

Many consider tomorrow night to be the real beginning of the Phillies season, after warming up against the Nationals and Astros for the first 3 series of the season. I don't buy this, but I do agree that the next series against the Marlins then after that against the Braves and Giants will be a truer measure of what the Phillies 2010 season will turn out to be. Game on.

Game 8: Jimmy Who?

Another win is in the books for the Phillies in this offensively hot 2010 season, with them beating the Nationals 14-7. Yes, the Nationals scored 7 runs, 6 of which were off Kyle Kendrick. Remember how people always said to not trust Spring Training results, no matter how tempting? This is starting to look like a good case for why. Of course, it's only 2 starts, but he probably had the most to prove as a starter going into this, and has not done so, even against the Washington Nationals. Once again, he needs to go back to working out with Roy Halladay.

(Photo courtesy of Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

The story of the night, going in, was the effect that losing Jimmy Rollins to the DL (out 2-4 weeks officially, hopefully on the lower end of that) and resting Jayson Werth. Well, from the 1st inning it was clear that this game belonged to the offense, on both sides. Stammen and Kendrick were both rocked and knocked out in less than 2. Kendrick gave up 6 runs in 1.2 innings, Stammen gave up 7 runs in 1.1. Not exactly your classic pitchers' duel. Once again, the Phillies bullpen was phenomenal, giving up 1 run in 7.1 innings. Figueroa not only pitched effectively, but hit a single and a double. He's looking like a better pick up every time he goes out. Durbin continued to look as effective this year as he was disappointing last year. Bastardo and Herndon combined to pitch a scoreless 8th and 9th.

Back to that offense, Shane Victorino's performance in the lead off spot was simply stellar. He was 4 for 5 with 2 singles, a 3 run triple, and a 2 run homer. That's 4 for 5 and a double shy of the cycle. He was certain doing his best 2010 J-Roll impression. Then there was Chase Utley, with his 2nd and 3rd homers in as many games. Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard also contributed multi-hit games of their own (as did the aforementioned Figueroa). All in all, J-Roll was missed, but not in the box score.

(Photo courtesy of Matt Slocum/AP)

Now, it's on to the final game of the series tomorrow, and Happ will try to bring the second sweep in a row for the Phils. So far, the offense is scary good. There's no two ways about that. You can argue all day long that we've only faced the Nationals and the Astros so far, and there's certainly some merit to that. However, even good teams playing terrible teams don't tend to average 8 runs a game. Winning 7 of 8 is impressive no matter what the schedule is. That being said, it'll be fun to see what happens going forward against the Marlins this weekend and against the Braves after that. I say, bring it on.

Sweepin' Up the 'Stros

The Phillies have their first sweep of the season. And wow. Roy Halladay sure knows how to get the job done. Today marks his 150th career win, and 50th career complete game. Yes, you read that right. A full one third of his wins are complete games (Update: It's been pointed out to me that not all of his complete games were wins. Nevertheless, the numbers are still pretty unbelievable). That, my friends and fellow fans, simply does not happen anymore. But it just did, today.

(Photo courtesy of Dave Einsel / AP)

I haven't updated since the Phillies left my area on Thursday, so I'll give a brief rundown of this recent sweep and then some thoughts on what the Phillies have shown so far.

Friday night's game saw a solid start from J.A. Happ, giving up no runs in 5 innings. However, as with Cole Hamels in game 2 against the Nationals, Happ labored through those 5 innings. The bullpen, however sparkled. David Herndon continues to be one of the better Rule 5 picks around lately. His strong innings were followed by an inning each by our favorite pair of former Cuban defectors, Danys Baez and Jose Contreras, who were both unhittable. Among Baez, Contreras, Herndon, and Madson the Phillies have 4 relievers who have touched 95 and above on the radar gun, each with a solid mix of pitches to boot. This raw stuff was simply not there in the bullpen last year. Backing up this combined 4 pitcher shutout, the offense did its job and scored 8 runs on 16 hits, including 3 hits by the reawakened Raul Ibanez. I'm going to pretend that he had a stunt double standing in for him before that point and hope for the best from this point forward.

(Photo courtesy of Todd Zolecki)

Moving on to Saturday night's game, our favorite 47 year old pitcher got his first start of the season, playing on "turn back the clock night" in Houston, where the Astros wore 1965 throwback uniforms. Incidentally, as has been pointed out elsewhere, Jamie Moyer is the only active player who was alive in 1965. It's those little details like that that make his career all the more astounding. His start was not all that astounding, however, giving up 5 runs including 2 home runs in the 3rd inning, which now puts him at 493 homers given up in his career. That means he's 12 short of the all-time record set by the Phillies' own Robin Roberts. Not bad company. That start aside, a 2 run shot by Ryan Howard in the 6th inning put Moyer in line for the win and the bullpen did its job once again, limiting the Astros to one run in 3 innings of relief. Shane Victorino, the last lackluster piece of the Phillies offense, came alive with a 2 run homer in the 8th after an RBI single earlier in the game. The Phillies took it 8-5.

And then there was one. One game left to earn the first sweep of the season. One game left, if all went well, for Roy Halladay to win his 150th game. It was a pitchers' duel from the start, well at least after Roy Oswalt gave up a leadoff homer to Jimmy Rollins, J-Roll's 34th career leadoff blast. That and a sacrifice fielder's choice by Ruiz in the 2nd was all Halladay needed. He went 9 innings, struck out 8, and gave up one unearned run. That included a 6th inning where he loaded the bases with no outs, then got a sacrifice double play and a quick 3rd out when Carlos Lee popped out to shortstop. Halladay gave up 2 singles to start the 7th, then after allowing the runners to advance on a Kaz Matsui bunt, Halladay induced a grounder back to him and a strikeout. Oh, and he even had a single in the top of the 7th. He cruised through the 8th and 9th, though Carlos Lee hit a monster foul ball that was feet away from being a homer to start off the 9th that likely gave all Phillies fans watching a near heart attack. Clearly the baseball gods were smiling on Roy today. When he got Pedro Feliz (yes, that Pedro Feliz) to pop out to Utley to end the game with the Phillies winning 2-1, it became clear to all just why the Phillies went to great lengths to acquire this guy.

Needless to say, the Phillies season so far has been an exciting one. With a 5-1 record, the Phillies came into today leading the majors in most offensive categories, but they showed in today's game that they can win with more than just their frightening offense. The bullpen got its rest in today, but they've all looked sharper than us fans could have hoped for coming out of spring training. About that offense, every single regular has now contributed solidly, even a few of the pitchers, though that's really the icing on the cake. I won't make crazy statements on how many wins, runs, etc. the Phillies are on pace to get, but I will say this. Assuming that there's more to this first week's performance than completely destroying a few mediocre (or worse) teams, this is going to be a damn good year.

Game 3: You Win Some...

Well, it had to happen. We all knew Jayson Werth's bat would come alive, and what a day it was. 3 doubles in 3 at-bats, and long fly out that probably would have been a 4th double if the center fielder hadn't been Nyjer Morgan. It'll take a lot more than that to make us forget about the beard though. Just sayin', Jayson.

Oh, also the Phillies lost. 6-5. What made it worse was that we hit atrociously with runners in scoring position. Meaning we were tantalizingly close to pulling ahead and left runners on base (11 in all), inning after inning, particularly late in the game. The two particularly painful moments: Howard's baserunning blunder in the 5th (probably the fault of 3rd base coach Sam Perlozzo) and Ryan Zimmerman's double in the 7th, which was the rare "blooper" double, thanks to incredible luck of the ball landing inches fair. As for the Howard incident, Perlozzo was waving him right along right until Howard got to the base when he held up a giant "STOP" motion, so it's hard to blame Howard for running hard up until that point, that is to say doing exactly what he was supposed to be doing.

(Photo courtesy of Susan Walsh / AP Photo)

The two bigger issues to take away from this game lay with a certain pitcher and a certain hitter. The pitcher had a stellar spring training that translated into a far less than stellar outing today, with Kendrick's final line being 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 hits, including 1 HR, and 2 K. I guess for all of his working out with Roy Halladay, he still leaves sinkers up in the zone. However, it was just one starts, so I'm willing to cut him a break on that.

The above mentioned hitter had an awful spring training that, so far, has translated into the exact opposite of a torrid start. Raul Ibanez is 1 for 11 after 3 games, though he has scored 3 runs after working a few walks. Still, coupled with his .122 Grapefruit League average and his lackluster second half of the 2010 season, this is starting to be cause for concern. Of course it's early on and Raul has plenty of time to turn things around, but I think all of us would like to see that happens sooner rather than later. Let's face it, he's not a young man anymore.

(Photo courtesy of Yong Kim / Inquirer staff photographer)

The first loss of the season comes with its share of silver linings. Hitters 1 through 5 of the Phillies lineup continued to show why the rest of the league should be afraid of our offense, with each of them having a multi-hit game and going a combined 11 for 23. If they keep this up at even 75% of their current rate, and the 6-8 hitters (though Carlos Ruiz, no slouch at the plate himself in the first 2 games, had the day off today) find their stride, this team could score 1000 runs. Sure, that's wishful thinking, but crazier things have happened in this wonderful sport.

For now, it's on to Houston and time for Happ to show that last season was not all about luck for him. I appreciate the power of numbers, but I hope for the Phillies' sake that Happ proves us statheads wrong this season.

Let the Roller Coaster Ride Begin

Having been at the game once again yesterday, I can easily say that the final score of 8-4 does not do justice to the fact that the real Phillies season started yesterday. That would be the Phillies season where, even when we're ahead, the team still does its best to treat us to a nice roller coaster ride of nerves.

Let's begin with mediums, then I'll get to the highs and lows. Cole Hamels. His much ballyhooed start was certainly not his best. Then again, compared to his first start last year, this one was an absolute gem. He clearly was not hitting his spots all the time, based on the 4 walks he issued in 5 innings. He also struck out 5, so while that's not a great K/BB ratio, it's still a great K/9 IP ratio. It's also one start, but hey, the numbers have to start somewhere. Despite his struggles, he did manage to get himself the win and only gave up 2 earned runs.

 (Photo courtesy of Yong Kim / Inquirer staff photographer)

Hamels showed flashes of 2009, which was certainly cause for a few heart palpitations. However, he never became completely unhinged by a bad inning as occurred a few times last season. The closest it came to that was after he gave up a solo homer to Ian Desmond to start the 3rd, then issued back to back walks and 2 singles. However he got out of a bases loaded jam to end that inning. That bases loaded jam was certainly one of the lows of the game, but Hamels escaped relatively unscathed. His greatest problem and cause for concern going forward, was not so much the damage caused by the Nats line-up, but the number of pitches it took Hamels to limit that damage. Giving up 2 earned runs in 5 innings is fine, but if it takes him 103 pitches to do so every time, he will not go any deeper into games. Which brings us to the Phillies bullpen last night.

On the whole, the 'pen was a high. Chad Durbin looked sharp, after a fairly lackluster 2009 season. Danys Baez struggled, but was bailed out by Antonio Bastardo doing what he's paid to do as the lefty specialist: come in for one left-handed batter, throw a pitch, get an out, and hand the ball off to the next pitcher. That next pitcher was Ryan Madson who registered the four out save and was throwing some sharp stuff. He even got an at bat with the bases loaded, and I was really hoping for a relief pitcher grand slam. I wonder how many of those there have been in baseball history.

Another high was the offense. Rollins had his second 2 BB game in a row. He only had 4 such games all season last year, so that certainly bodes well.  Polanco, Utley, Howard, and Ruiz all had multi-hit games, and Howard blasted (and I mean blasted) his 2nd homer in as many games. Hell, even Cole Hamels had an RBI single, making him the 2nd Phillies starter in 2 games to do so. I wonder how many teams have started off their seasons with back to back games with pitcher RBIs. If anyone has any insight on that, let me know.

So there you have it, game 2 of the 2010 season. The good, the bad, and the mediocre of the Phillies season so far. The offense overall looks great, though it would be nice if the bats of Ibanez and Werth started showing some life soon. The pitching was solid in the end, but not wonderful. Despite the 8-4 final score, there were several near disasters in this game against a line-up that is hardly among the most fearsome in baseball.

In the greater scheme of things, the Phillies added some pitching depth by claiming Nelson Figueroa off waivers yesterday, who is likely to go straight into the bullpen today and replace Drew Carpenter. This strikes me as a good, low-risk move at a time when the Phillies sorely need more major league-ready pitching depth. It also gives Figueroa another shot at proving his value to the Phillies as part of that ill-fated Curt Schilling trade to the Diamondbacks all those years ago.

One final note: Kyle Kendrick has his first start of 2010 today against the Nationals, and his days in the rotation may be numbered. I fully expect him not to take that time for granted and pitch his hardest to make his case for the 5th starter spot when Blanton returns from the DL. Hopefully he'll continue his spring training emulation of his man crush. All Phillies eyes (and ears in my case, since the game will be blacked out on mlb.tv) will be on that starting at 4:35 PM.

Oh What a Day It Has Been!

I just wanted a fun game. I already knew I was getting a Presidential first pitch, and Roy Halladay's start as a Phillie. For all the hype and talk this preseason, I just wanted a decent win. Little did I know I would get so much more.

Presidents, real (top) and fake (bottom).

For starters, Ryan Howard had quite the 2 run blast to put the Phillies on the board in the 4th. When he walked up to the plate with Utley on 1st, I turned to my friend and said "I have a good feeling about this at bat." Then he Howard proceeded to kill a baseball. I won't mention the other times today that I said I had good feelings and nothing happened. That was the only good feeling that I actually felt, clearly.

The Polanco grand slam was another fine moment. I seem to remember us signing him for his contact hitting abilities, not so much any hitting for power. Looks like he sure knows how to (re-)endear himself to a fan base.

Then there was Roy. Roy threw 7 innings. Roy gave up one run early in the game before settling down and mowing down the Nationals lineup. That mowing took the form of a solid 9 Ks over those 7 innings. Sure he gave up a run in the first inning, but in the end that almost seemed like he was toying with the Nats. He did a nice job of getting their hopes up before crushing them entirely. Not too shabby, Mr. Halladay.

Doc, the one and only.

Overall, this day was incredible. I got to the ball park early and got to see some of the pitchers not in today's game, including our once and future ace:

Cole Hamels, plotting his comeback.

After a day like today, I can't stop thinking about how much I love baseball and I love the Phillies. Starting the season on such a high note inevitably leaves us fans open to disappointment, but I'm not worrying about that right now. For now, I'm just glowing from this win (and literally from sunburn). Until Wednesday, over and out.

Phillies Front Office Discussions: Newsworthy?

No. The answer to the title of this post is no. With all due respect to Buster Olney, and I have a lot of respect for both his writing and the important contribution he makes to baseball coverage, when he broke the "news" that "an idea has been kicked around the Phillies' organization internally, with discussions about proposing a swap of slugger Ryan Howard for St. Louis superstar Albert Pujols," my first reaction was: what is Olney thinking? I realize that this idea involves two MVPs and two of the most feared players in the NL, but seriously, is this what the 24/7 news cycle has brought us to?

 (Photo courtesy of Todd Zolecki)

Now it's entirely possible that there's more to this than Olney's reporting, but I'm going to go with what I know as a member of the sports media reading public. If in fact this is just an idea that has been kicked around the Phillies internally, then it does not deserve ESPN column space. It does not deserve an AP article. Not only does it not deserve this attention because it's less than a rumor of a rumor of a trade, but it's just irresponsible reporting.

I, for one, do not like the insane amount of attention that some substantial trade rumors already merit for the way it that this coverage treats players as simple commodities while they still have to go out and play for teams that they're rumored to be leaving. But I accept trade rumors of substance are news, at least at the point in the trade process that these rumors are usually reported. However, if we start reporting internal discussions before they even reach the level that two teams are even talking about talking to each other, then where do we stop? I recognize that Olney is reporting only what he's heard and he's not making this out to be anything more than it is, but by simply using his lofty platform to do so, he elevates this talk to a level that it does not deserve.

I'm going to assume, and I may be proven wrong, that Ruben Amaro's very strong denials mean something in this case, only because the whole idea simply makes no sense. Yes, Ruben made similar denials before Halladay came to Philly and Cliff Lee went to Seattle, and the Cliff Lee side of that certainly shocked me and many others. But if the Cardinals actually parted with Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard, that simply wouldn't make sense to me, on any level. Unless Ryan Howard were willing to take a HUGE discount to play in St. Louis. Unless the Phillies increased their payroll to give Pujols the A-Rod level contract he'll command. Unless Cardinals GM John Mozeliak suddenly went insane. Or, unless Amaro emptied the farm to make an offer that the Cardinals couldn't refuse, and in that case only if they were suddenly no longer a perennial contender. That's a lot of caveats. And maybe all those things will come to pass, however unlikely they may be. If that were the case, and there were be a point that this would actually become a sane idea, it might worthy of reporting. Then, Mr. Olney, report away.

As for the idea itself, a simple swap of these two superstars would be idiotic for the Cardinals. I love Ryan Howard as a Phillie, but I've already written about his weaknesses as a player (see "Is Ryan Howard Overrated?"). Albert Pujols is a cut above even someone of Ryan Howard's talent and athleticism. He does not strike out like Ryan Howard does. He does not have a huge platoon split like Ryan Howard does. In case you were wondering, Albert Pujols has a career line of .330/.419/.622 against righties and .346/.452/.646 against lefties. He doesn't seem to even know the meaning of "platoon split." I could go on, but you get the idea. When I said in my last post that "I would still take Howard at first base over nearly any other in baseball," that "nearly any other" meant "Albert Pujols." Again, as this "trade" idea stands, it simply makes no sense.

So here are the facts: Buster Olney reported internal discussions of an idea for at trade that is reportedly nowhere near being discussed with the other team involved and it is an idea that, as reported, is ludicrous. If people who command the respect that Olney does start reporting every pipe dream of every front office, then the nonexistent attention span of the 24-hour news cycle will truly have taken over sports media.

On the other hand if I'm proven wrong about all this and there's much more to this rumor of a rumor than meets the eye, I'll happily admit I was wrong. I won't care, since the Phillies will have Albert Pujols and the rest of the national league can forget about getting a pennant anytime soon.


In other news, Placido Polanco sprained his right knee in a spring training game today. It was quite a scare when it happened, but it seems like he'll be alright after a week or so, pending a swelling assessment tomorrow morning. It should prepare us Phillies fans for the possibility of injury to a key player, something we really haven't had to deal with on a large scale in the last two years. There was a phenomenal post over at the700level.com today that discussed that we should really enjoy these golden years of the current Phillies team, because it won't last forever. Injury scares like Polly's today really drive home the fleeting nature of baseball. As we go into what will hopefully be another awesome season in 2010, let's stay thankful for the great ride this team gave us these last few years.

As a final note, the aforementioned the700level.com announced today that it is joining forces with Comcast SportsNet. This is great news for one of the best Philly sports blogs around and for the network that recognized its value. I wish them the best of luck and the greatest success in this new and groundbreaking collaboration.

3/16 Update:  Olney addressed much of what I and many others have written on the subject in a blog post today. If you have ESPN Insider access, check that out at the bottom of this post. Suffice it to say that I didn't expect him to suddenly say "you were all right, I was wrong," but his defense doesn't change my mind at all. I still think it's inappropriate and unproductive to report these things at the stage that this "trade rumor" was at, even if it is credible and could lead to a blockbuster trade in the future. As I said before, if that is the case, it will reach a point where it is newsworthy, and of course the newsworthiness of any story is a judgment call that the reporter has to make. I still disagree with Olney that internal discussions of this level merit the attention he gave it.

Is Ryan Howard Overrated?

After looking at the worthiness of Jayson Werth last time, I decided to turn my attention to his counterpart in that discussion, Ryan Howard. Now, before any Ryan Howard fans get themselves in a tizzy after reading the title of this post, I have two things to say. First, it's a question that should be posed in the discussion of the future of the Phillies, and the answer is not necessarily yes (you'll have to read on to find that out). Second, for anyone who has read Jayson Stark's phenomenal book, "The Stark Truth: the Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History," you'll know that calling someone overrated means that have to be pretty damn good in the first place to get that sort of consideration. For example, he considers Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax to be the most overrated right-handed and left-handed starting pitchers, respectively. If I do in fact decide that Ryan Howard is overrated, that's still some good company to find yourself in.

 (Image courtesy of Phillies.com)

For a complete overview of Ryan Howard's stats, see his entry on the one and only baseball-reference.com. That's where I'm getting my numbers from and you should too.

I'll start by looking at Howard's OPS+ over the years. OPS+ is a way of giving context to a player's OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage, a rough but decent estimate of a player's offensive value). According to The Hardball Times great stats glossary, OPS+ is defined as "OPS measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An OPS+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average."

With a career OPS+ at 142, Ryan Howard has been 1.42 times as good offensively as the average player. To give you an idea of how that compares to some other feared players, Barry Bonds had a career OPS+ of 182, Albert Pujols has a 172, and A-Rod has a 147. There are many others you could look at for comparison, but this is just to give you an idea of where Ryan Howard stands in the rankings, about 5 years into his major league career. While Howard may not be Bondsian, he is still up there in the rankings.

Now let's look at home runs and RBIs, more traditional measurements that are easier to witness first hand and numbers that Ryan Howard is best known for. He has led the league in home runs twice and RBIs three times, and is one of only three players in baseball history to have 4 consecutive 45+ homer and 135+ RBI seasons. The other two, for those of you scoring at home, are Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa. Howard also happens to be the player who reached 200 home runs in the fewest plate appearances in baseball history. Not too shabby. Relatedly, Howard also has the highest Isolated Power (ISO) of any active player in baseball today. Put simply by baseballprospectus.com, "Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter's raw power, in terms of extra bases per AB." So in terms of his reputation as a feared power hitter, he's certainly not overrated.

Now for the other side of his career numbers. First, the strikeouts and walks. As you can see from the chart, Howard struck out over 180 times each season since 2006, including those two ugly 199 K seasons, which was bad enough to set a new record the first time in 2007. He was saved from maintaining that dubious distinction in 2008 by one Mark Reynolds of the Arizona D'backs who seems to have decided he wants to beat his own strikeout record each year. The good news about strikeouts is that 2009 showed meaningful progress over the previous two years. However, anyone who watched the 2009 World Series knows that Howard still has a serious strikeout problem. As for his walks, they have decreased significantly since Howard's ungodly MVP season in 2006, and this trend continued in 2009. For a better analysis than I can do on these numbers, check out "Fall from Ridiculous Pace" over at Philliesflow.com.

The second part of Howard's weaknesses are two issues that are often pointed to as Howard most important flaws: his glaring platoon split and his relative inability to hit curveballs. These are both very real problems for Ryan Howard, and if he can improve on these then I wouldn't be writing this blog post right now. His career line (BA/OBP/SLG) against right-handed pitchers .307/.409/.661. Those are MVP-caliber numbers in any season. Now for the ugly part: against lefties Howard is .226/.310/.444. Those are mediocre numbers in any season. As for the curveball issue, Tom Verducci over at SI started the most recent discussion on this with an insightful column that points out that not only does Ryan Howard struggle mightily against breaking balls, but the problem has only gotten worse over the course of his career. Verducci is well worth the read so I recommend you go do that and I'll move on from this depressing facet of Howard's career.

So there you have it, a small but important sample of the good, the bad, and the ugly of Ryan Howard's career thus far. My final pronouncement is...

Yes, Ryan Howard is overrated, judging by the number of MVP votes he has gotten since his much deserved award in 2006 and the way that many of us Phillies fans think of him. But as his OPS+ and power numbers show, he is still a huge offensive contributor and one of the best sluggers in baseball, and that's saying a lot. You simply can't argue with those power numbers, from the old fashioned RBI and home run totals to the more advanced ISO stat. But for all that power and fear that he elicits in response, Howard has some glaring weaknesses that will be become easier to exploit as more teams figure them out, if they haven't already. If a player can be effectively neutralized, for the most part, simply with left handed pitching and breaking balls, he would have to put up numbers like Howard did in 2006 for me to write those weaknesses off as insignificant. If Howard has another year like that, I'll be happy to revisit this discussion.

Howard still puts up fearsome numbers and carries the Phillies year after year through the month of September, which is a better month to carry the team in than say, April. He also could be even better simply by hitting a few bloopers out to shallow left field now and again to force teams to stop employing the extreme defensive shift on him. He has already shown the ability to do that in spring training this year and that bodes well for the coming season.

Even with his painful weaknesses, I would still take Howard at first base over nearly any other in baseball, and he has certainly established his place in Phillies history already. If he can solve his lefty and breaking ball problems, he will be well on his way to establishing his place in baseball history as a whole, as well as a nice trip to Cooperstown sometime down the road.

Is Werth Worthy of His Worth?

I've decided to take a break from analyzing the minutiae of each spring training game and look at a broader issue: the future of Jayson Werth. The newly bearded one has been making waves because of his appearance, and hopefully will start making a splash with his playing once the season starts.

While it's something of a given to many that the Phillies simply can't afford to sign Werth once he becomes a free agent at the end of 2010, some others have thought more outside the box. One of the most provocative suggestions I've read is by Bill Baer over at Crashburn Alley, who set off a bit of a blogosphere and Twitter firestorm with a column arguing that the Phillies should trade Ryan Howard after the 2010 season so that, among other reasons, we can retain Werth.

 (Left: Photo courtesy of Todd Zolecki;

Right: Photo courtesy of Big League Stew)

There are a number of ways this move could play out: Baer suggests we move Utley to 1st base, Polanco to 2nd, and use the Howard trade to replenish our farm system and/or get a good replacement 3rd baseman. Another option would be to move Ibanez to first base and take advantage of our stellar outfield depth in the farm system as it currently stands. Anyone who has seen Domonic Brown show off just why he was untouchable in the Lee and Halladay deals can attest to this depth. Tyson Gillies, a part of the deal that sent Lee to Seattle, hasn't been slacking either.

The fact that Werth has edged his way into a conversation like this is remarkable. While I don't think pulling off a Howard trade is feasible for the front office without having a revolt on their hands, the idea of it inspired me to read up on just what Werth has done so far to justify all of this buzz.

According to Wikipedia, Jayson Richard Gowan Werth began his career with the following feat: "Werth teamed up with three other pitchers to combine for a no-hitter in a 56–1 victory en route to a third place finish at Nationals." I have no idea what this means. If anyone does, please let me know.

Moving on to reality, due to injuries, particularly due to an A.J. Burnett-induced broken wrist in 2005, Werth was not a full season every day player until 2009. However, he showed some flashes of the player we saw this past season in 2007 and 2008, with 9 consecutive hits over two games over August 26 - 27, 2007 and a 3 homer, 8 RBI game on May 16, 2008. He still had to split time with the one and only knee slapping Geoff Jenkins, who we last saw with a nice leadoff pinch hit double in sixth inning in game 5.5 of the 2008 World Series.

In 2009, Werth was finally given the opportunity to show his stuff. He showed his ability to hit for power, steal bases (including that great steal home in May), field the ball well, and throw some bullets from right field. He made his first all-star team, though that took Charlie tapping him to replace an injured Carlos Beltran. After Werth hit 6th behind Utley, Howard, and Ibanez for much of the season, Charlie started switching him and Ibanez in the lineup to break up the lefty-lefty-left middle of the order, to great effect. Among other accomplishments, Werth had 36 homers and drove in 99 runs, more than a third of his career homers and almost a third of his career RBI total. He also led the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance, one of the more underrated batting stats.

So Jayson Werth had a career year in 2009. That's indisputable. Armed with his new facial hair, he looks poised to continue the success in 2010, and possibly get even better. If that should happen, Werth will deserve every penny of a Jason Bay-like deal (4 years, $66 million) and more. The Phillies will not have that kind of money barring a significant change in the $140 million budget cap for 2011.

I don't want to make the call between Howard and Werth right now, but I will say that it would pain me to see either of them on a different team. Werth has had a breakout year, but Howard has put up truly historic numbers since 2005, especially in the pivotal month of September in the last few seasons. It's up to Werth to prove this year that 2009 was not a fluke, and I believe that he will do so. If he blossoms into the electrifying player that he's capable of becoming, 2010 will be a great season for the Phillies regardless of what happens after that. If Werth has another career year, then we should be so lucky as to choose between two superstars of his and Howard's caliber.