Sunday, March 28, 2010

Moyer is the Answer

Of course, right after I blogged that I plan on writing more frequently, events out in life got in the way. So it goes. Here's to a second attempt at getting things going more often here at Phillibustering.

I have an idea: let's declare the battle for the 5th starter spot over right now so the winner and loser can start preparing accordingly. Let's not draw this out; it's been clear for a while that Rich Dubee and Charlie Manuel did not come into this spring really considering this battle an even playing field between Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick (and Jose Contreras and Drew Carpenter, who were just mentioned to make it seem more like a real competition). This seems to be the general consensus after his stellar 6.2 inning, 6 K, 1 hit, 0 R, 0 BB outing against the Yankees yesterday. A brief rundown of the sports punditry:

 (Photo Courtesy of the AP/Mike Carlson)

You get the point. With all due respect to Kyle Kendrick, a great comeback story in the making, I have to award the spot to Moyer. Barring a truly horrible spring, the spot was Moyer's to lose simply because of the numbers. And I don't mean his low 80s fastball that still manages to baffle hitters. I mean the fact that he's 47 years young, makes $8 million, and defies the odds in truly historic ways and knows his craft as few others do. This faced several points in his career when others would have quit, but he quietly continued getting to his current 258 wins total. If he manages even a mediocre season this year after three offseason surgeries, I will honestly believe that this man could pitch into his 50s and get 300 wins.

That being said, I like knowing that Kendrick is not just a viable alternative but a good one should Moyer falter. I do this infrequently in sports, but I say that Jamie Moyer deserves the benefit of the doubt. Kendrick can pitch in the bullpen better than Moyer can, and has a minor league option left.

WARNING NERD PARAGRAPH: Look at it as basic economics. Even if Kendrick has an absolute advantage pitching as our 5th starter, he has the greater comparative advantage in the bullpen, and the team on the whole is the better for it. Alright, I'm done nerding out.

Now for a little history, and I'm essentially condensing what Jayson Stark wrote a week ago, which even those poor souls of you out there without ESPN Insider Access can read. If Jamie Moyer starts more than one game this year, he'd be the first non-knuckleballer at age 47 or older to do that. Period. He'll only be the second pitcher ever to do that, counting the knuckleballer Phil Niekro. The only other players to make even one start at such advanced ages were the seemingly eternal Satchel Paige at 58 (yes, you read that right; once again, read this book) and Jack Quinn, also at 47, who played so long ago that he was born in a country that stopped existing in 1918.

The point of all of this is not to say that history should trump skill here. The point is that the Phillies not only have two options for the 5th starter spot, but two good options based on what we are seeing right now. It makes a lot of sense to start with Moyer on a short leash and pull him for Kendrick if he starts to fail as an effective starter. It makes less sense to do it the other way around.  It's also easy to be wowed by the recency of Kyle Kendrick's success, but always remember that the last month means a lot less than the last year of a player's career, which itself means a lot less than the sum total of that career. That statement is even more true when the last month consisted of games that didn't count.

As things stand, both of these guys have their pros and their cons. Contracts aside, it's not an easy choice to decide what's best for the team, but my pre-spring training wish of having a real, spirited battle for the 5th starter spot has been fulfilled. It's really anyone's guess which of these two will be the better pitcher this season, but if I had to guess, I'll err on the side of making history.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

15 Days and Counting...

15 days from today at 1:05 PM, I (and many other excited fans) will probably get to see Roy Halladay take the mound for the first time as Phillie in a regular season game. You would think that there's been adequate time to prepare for this eventuality, and yet I know it's still going to send chills through Phillies fans everywhere. Luckily I'll be kept warm from these chills by my brand new Roy Halladay t-shirt. I imagine my outfit will match a few others in the DC crowd on April 5th.

 (Photo courtesy of mlb.com)

That same Roy Halladay did show his human side yesterday, giving up 3 runs, 6 hits, and 2 walks in five innings. He admitted that he was inconsistent and was still working out a few kinks in his mechanics in the process. If an outing like that is what an off day for Roy Halladay looks like, I think we'll be alright. On the other hand it would still be nice for him to go out on April 5th and absolutely destroy the Nationals line-up. Of course, beating the Nationals is more like winning an exhibition game against a nice upstart AAA team. Still if Roy Halladay pitches at even 75% of his potential in that game, it'll be damn fun to watch.

Moving back to my perennial blog topic, the resurgence of Cole Hamels, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly has a great piece up today discussing a rival team's scout's appreciation of Hamels' pitching so far in spring training. Of course, it's easy to let expectations get out of control with a team like the current crop of Phillies and the hype surrounding them going into the 2010 season. Personally, I like to get my expectations built up because it's more fun to feel great about every part of your team. If Cole Hamels doesn't pitch like he did in 2008, I'll take that in stride, but I'd rather start out with the hope that he will, and all signs I've seen point to that.

I'm going to keep this post brief, and start doing briefer posts from now on (unless events call for more) so I can update more regularly. As the season gets underway in a little over two weeks, I'll be trying to update on a daily basis, and I'll hope to add an interesting perspective to all things Phillies-related during the season. As The Phield pointed out, with so many Phillies blogs, it's hard for any one to distinguish itself. While I won't be able to provide any news you can't read elsewhere, I hope to at least inject a little insight and humor into the Phillies conversation. Maybe next year I'll get myself put in a better matchup than against The Fightins, who trounced me pretty well on Friday. Thanks to all of those of you who did vote for me. If The Phield is back next year, I hope to be back in it, with a stronger voice and a year's experience under my belt.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

King Cole or Hollywood Hamels?

I've mentioned a few times over the course of this blog that I firmly believe Cole Hamels is due for a better year than 2009. However, the fact that he has shown us two different versions of himself in begs the question: which pitcher is Cole Hamels?












Warning: Prolonged exposure to photo on the right can cause health problems
(Right: Photo courtesy of the AP;
Left: Photo courtesy of phinallyphilly.com)

On the one hand we have King Cole, the pitcher who had a breakout year in 2007 with a 15-5 record, a 3.39 ERA, 177 K, and 43 BB in 183.1 innings. He followed that in 2008 with a 14-10 record, a 3.09 ERA, 196 K, and 53 BB in 227.1 innings in the regular season, plus a postseason pitching performance that ranked among baseball's best.

In case you wondering, Hamels is one of only 5 players (including some guy named Orel Hershiser) to win two postseason MVP awards in the same year, and one of only 10 pitchers (including the aforementioned Hershiser, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, and a few other guys you've heard of) at the time to win 4 games in one. Since then, one other guy has earned that latter distinction, though he currently seems pissed that his former team traded him this offseason.

Going into the 2009 season, Cole Hamels worked his way into being a Cy Young and fantasy favorite. He had a magical offseason otherwise, and by magical I mean doing many things not related to baseball. This included posing for the dangerously creepy picture above, and doing some weird ads, including this and a few fake sounding ads for Comcast that seem to have been removed from YouTube. In one of them he talked about how great it was to talk to his grandma in California. I'm all for that, but I'm still struggling to figure out what that has to do with working on his arm strength and breaking ball.

Despite the baseball hype and Charlie calling him the opening day starter, he left spring training with elbow tightness and ended up pitching in the fourth game of the year, at Colorado. He got off to a disappointing start, giving up 7 runs in 3.2 innings. He managed to bring his ERA down to 5.04 by his 6th start, and it continued to hover between 4 and 5 for the rest of the season. Not bad for an average pitcher, but not the Cole Hamels we had come to know.

We also saw a pitcher who seemed to get visibly fed up on the mound, culminating with a disheartening show of emotion in game 1 of the NLCS after Chase Utley botched a double play attempt. That and the following quote that got just a little bit of coverage: "I can't wait for it to end. It's been mentally draining... It's one of those things, a year in, you just can't wait for a fresh start." Whatever Hamels meant by this, and I believe it was blown out of proportion, he should have thought more carefully before saying anything like "I can't wait for it to end."

Hamels finished 2009 with a 10-11 record, a 4.32 ERA, 168 K, 43 BB in 193.2 regular season innings. His postseason included a forgettable 1-2 record and a 7.58 ERA.

Now I wrote in my very first blog entry many reasons why Hamels 2009 season wasn't as bad as it appeared, and that bad luck, including an unusually high BABIP and an ERA higher than his FIP, contributed to his mediocre numbers. However, I also said that the mental aspect of his game did not do him any favors. When  he started looking frustrated, as he did in game 1 of the NLCS, it became more likely that he would be pulled early, including in situations with runners on base that he was responsible for. I think that Cole Hamels could have simply worked to keep his physical game at the same high level that it had always been at, worked to improve his mental game, and he would have shown improvement over 2009. Instead he's done much more.

Cole Hamels commercial offseason and emotional season helped reinforceto the "Hollywood Hamels" image. The difference between the 2009 and 2010 offseasons for Hamels was stark, and spring training thus far has been no different from this time last year. Not only did he seriously work on, of all things, baseball during the winter, he worked on being more than just a two pitch pitcher with a good fastball and a great change-up. He's confident in his brand new cutter and seems to be more confident in a curveball that up until now he's pitched more to reassure himself than to get batters out. So far he's given up two earned runs, both solo homers to Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays. Even then he looked more confident on the mound than I've seen him in a long time. Don't just take my word for it though:

ESPN's Buster Olney: "I get asked all the time by friends for fantasy tips, and I've been telling them this over the last few days: Take Cole Hamels."

Fox Sport's Ken Rosenthal: "Scout on Phillies' Hamels: 'The way he is trending, the rest of the National League should be worried.'"

Paul Hagen also wrote an excellent piece in The Daily News comparing Hamels' career to that of Justin Verlander so far, and that's definitely worth a read. If Hamels has a Verlander-like bounce back this year and he's not even the Phillies' no. 1 starter, Ken Rosenthal's scout is damn right that the rest of the NL should be worried. A 1-2 punch of Doc Halladay and a returned to form King Cole could be as formidable as any in baseball. I didn't even cover the Verducci Effect in this post, which predicted a slump in 2009 for Hamels and a return to form in 2010.

That's just a brief portrait of Cole Hamels, a man who could still be the ace for a number of teams in baseball. With new pitches in hand and better emotional control, Hamels has the chance to put "Hollywood Hamels" to rest this season and assume the mantle of "King Cole" once again.

In other news today, The Phield released its previews of tomorrow's match-ups, including the one between yours truly and The Fightins. The Phield had the following to say about Phillibustering:

"Aaron’s Phillibustering has under 30 posts, and is not updated every day, but it’s a worthy entry to the tournament because of its content. He asks the tough questions, like 'Is Ryan Howard overrated?' (the answer is no) and throws some humor into the pot once in a while. Does it distinguish itself? No. But Aaron has a nice template here. Refine and fire. Refine and fire."

For a blog as young as this one, I'll take it. I'm definitely going to be updating more frequently once the season starts, ideally on a daily or more often basis. But as someone new to blogging and sportswriting, I'm flattered to get high marks on content. Remember to vote for me tomorrow and at least give The Fightins a Robert Morris-like scare.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Phielder's Choice!

Imagine my surprise when I arrived home in a food coma stupor from Legal Seafoods and found that I had been selected as a no. 14 seed in the first ever Phillies Blog March Madness, The Phield!

I'm honored to be up against a phenomenal blog, The Fightins, in my first and probably only round of the tournament. For a blog that's only a month old, not too shabby. I feel like the Florida State Seminoles at a major league spring training game. Or one of those countries that's happy just to be at the winter Olympics, like that Turkish female figure skater. Anyway, thanks to the Phield for the shoutout and the publicity.

In other news, Cole Hamels and Domonic Brown looked pretty phenomenal today. Their lines:

Hamels: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, and for the first time this spring , 0 HR. That might have something to do with the absence of Jose Bautista.

Brown: 4 PA, 3 H (including 2 homers and an infield single), 1 BB. Yes, Brown went 3 for 3 with a two homer game, even if one of them was caught by a fan reaching his hat over the railing. Good thing there's no replay in spring training. Oh, and the Tigers' pitcher? Justin Verlander.

Anyway, Brown hit his way out of major league camp, to paraphrase Charlie Manuel today. I have a feeling that's not the last we'll see of him as a Phillie, and I don't mean the Reading variety.

(Photo courtesy of Todd Zolecki)

Overall, a great day for the Phillies not giving up any earned runs and some of the more worrisome pieces and potential pieces of our bullpen (see Bastardo, Antonio and Madson, Ryan) having strong outings. Madson even struck out a guy on a curve ball and threw a few curves for strikes. I don't know who that surprised more, the batter or the commentators.

Spring training continues on with the number of players at camp dwindling and the battle for the 5th starter potentially heating up after the $8 million old man got lit up while facing an almost major-league lineup for the first time all spring. His competitor, Kyle Kendrick, has pitched phenomenally against said major-league lineups, with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.44 WHIP. Not too shabby. It'll still take a lot to dethrone Jamie Moyer, but Kendrick has made the case that we have the depth to keep Moyer on a short leash.

That's all for now, and again, keep an eye on The Phield on March 18-19 and vote for me in the first round match up. If I can't pull off a 2006 George Masonian upset, I'll at least go for a respectable showing. Like that Turkish figure skater.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Phillies Front Office Discussions: Newsworthy?

No. The answer to the title of this post is no. With all due respect to Buster Olney, and I have a lot of respect for both his writing and the important contribution he makes to baseball coverage, when he broke the "news" that "an idea has been kicked around the Phillies' organization internally, with discussions about proposing a swap of slugger Ryan Howard for St. Louis superstar Albert Pujols," my first reaction was: what is Olney thinking? I realize that this idea involves two MVPs and two of the most feared players in the NL, but seriously, is this what the 24/7 news cycle has brought us to?

 (Photo courtesy of Todd Zolecki)

Now it's entirely possible that there's more to this than Olney's reporting, but I'm going to go with what I know as a member of the sports media reading public. If in fact this is just an idea that has been kicked around the Phillies internally, then it does not deserve ESPN column space. It does not deserve an AP article. Not only does it not deserve this attention because it's less than a rumor of a rumor of a trade, but it's just irresponsible reporting.

I, for one, do not like the insane amount of attention that some substantial trade rumors already merit for the way it that this coverage treats players as simple commodities while they still have to go out and play for teams that they're rumored to be leaving. But I accept trade rumors of substance are news, at least at the point in the trade process that these rumors are usually reported. However, if we start reporting internal discussions before they even reach the level that two teams are even talking about talking to each other, then where do we stop? I recognize that Olney is reporting only what he's heard and he's not making this out to be anything more than it is, but by simply using his lofty platform to do so, he elevates this talk to a level that it does not deserve.

I'm going to assume, and I may be proven wrong, that Ruben Amaro's very strong denials mean something in this case, only because the whole idea simply makes no sense. Yes, Ruben made similar denials before Halladay came to Philly and Cliff Lee went to Seattle, and the Cliff Lee side of that certainly shocked me and many others. But if the Cardinals actually parted with Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard, that simply wouldn't make sense to me, on any level. Unless Ryan Howard were willing to take a HUGE discount to play in St. Louis. Unless the Phillies increased their payroll to give Pujols the A-Rod level contract he'll command. Unless Cardinals GM John Mozeliak suddenly went insane. Or, unless Amaro emptied the farm to make an offer that the Cardinals couldn't refuse, and in that case only if they were suddenly no longer a perennial contender. That's a lot of caveats. And maybe all those things will come to pass, however unlikely they may be. If that were the case, and there were be a point that this would actually become a sane idea, it might worthy of reporting. Then, Mr. Olney, report away.

As for the idea itself, a simple swap of these two superstars would be idiotic for the Cardinals. I love Ryan Howard as a Phillie, but I've already written about his weaknesses as a player (see "Is Ryan Howard Overrated?"). Albert Pujols is a cut above even someone of Ryan Howard's talent and athleticism. He does not strike out like Ryan Howard does. He does not have a huge platoon split like Ryan Howard does. In case you were wondering, Albert Pujols has a career line of .330/.419/.622 against righties and .346/.452/.646 against lefties. He doesn't seem to even know the meaning of "platoon split." I could go on, but you get the idea. When I said in my last post that "I would still take Howard at first base over nearly any other in baseball," that "nearly any other" meant "Albert Pujols." Again, as this "trade" idea stands, it simply makes no sense.

So here are the facts: Buster Olney reported internal discussions of an idea for at trade that is reportedly nowhere near being discussed with the other team involved and it is an idea that, as reported, is ludicrous. If people who command the respect that Olney does start reporting every pipe dream of every front office, then the nonexistent attention span of the 24-hour news cycle will truly have taken over sports media.

On the other hand if I'm proven wrong about all this and there's much more to this rumor of a rumor than meets the eye, I'll happily admit I was wrong. I won't care, since the Phillies will have Albert Pujols and the rest of the national league can forget about getting a pennant anytime soon.


In other news, Placido Polanco sprained his right knee in a spring training game today. It was quite a scare when it happened, but it seems like he'll be alright after a week or so, pending a swelling assessment tomorrow morning. It should prepare us Phillies fans for the possibility of injury to a key player, something we really haven't had to deal with on a large scale in the last two years. There was a phenomenal post over at the700level.com today that discussed that we should really enjoy these golden years of the current Phillies team, because it won't last forever. Injury scares like Polly's today really drive home the fleeting nature of baseball. As we go into what will hopefully be another awesome season in 2010, let's stay thankful for the great ride this team gave us these last few years.

As a final note, the aforementioned the700level.com announced today that it is joining forces with Comcast SportsNet. This is great news for one of the best Philly sports blogs around and for the network that recognized its value. I wish them the best of luck and the greatest success in this new and groundbreaking collaboration.

3/16 Update:  Olney addressed much of what I and many others have written on the subject in a blog post today. If you have ESPN Insider access, check that out at the bottom of this post. Suffice it to say that I didn't expect him to suddenly say "you were all right, I was wrong," but his defense doesn't change my mind at all. I still think it's inappropriate and unproductive to report these things at the stage that this "trade rumor" was at, even if it is credible and could lead to a blockbuster trade in the future. As I said before, if that is the case, it will reach a point where it is newsworthy, and of course the newsworthiness of any story is a judgment call that the reporter has to make. I still disagree with Olney that internal discussions of this level merit the attention he gave it.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Is Ryan Howard Overrated?

After looking at the worthiness of Jayson Werth last time, I decided to turn my attention to his counterpart in that discussion, Ryan Howard. Now, before any Ryan Howard fans get themselves in a tizzy after reading the title of this post, I have two things to say. First, it's a question that should be posed in the discussion of the future of the Phillies, and the answer is not necessarily yes (you'll have to read on to find that out). Second, for anyone who has read Jayson Stark's phenomenal book, "The Stark Truth: the Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History," you'll know that calling someone overrated means that have to be pretty damn good in the first place to get that sort of consideration. For example, he considers Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax to be the most overrated right-handed and left-handed starting pitchers, respectively. If I do in fact decide that Ryan Howard is overrated, that's still some good company to find yourself in.

 (Image courtesy of Phillies.com)

For a complete overview of Ryan Howard's stats, see his entry on the one and only baseball-reference.com. That's where I'm getting my numbers from and you should too.

I'll start by looking at Howard's OPS+ over the years. OPS+ is a way of giving context to a player's OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage, a rough but decent estimate of a player's offensive value). According to The Hardball Times great stats glossary, OPS+ is defined as "OPS measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An OPS+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average."

With a career OPS+ at 142, Ryan Howard has been 1.42 times as good offensively as the average player. To give you an idea of how that compares to some other feared players, Barry Bonds had a career OPS+ of 182, Albert Pujols has a 172, and A-Rod has a 147. There are many others you could look at for comparison, but this is just to give you an idea of where Ryan Howard stands in the rankings, about 5 years into his major league career. While Howard may not be Bondsian, he is still up there in the rankings.

Now let's look at home runs and RBIs, more traditional measurements that are easier to witness first hand and numbers that Ryan Howard is best known for. He has led the league in home runs twice and RBIs three times, and is one of only three players in baseball history to have 4 consecutive 45+ homer and 135+ RBI seasons. The other two, for those of you scoring at home, are Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa. Howard also happens to be the player who reached 200 home runs in the fewest plate appearances in baseball history. Not too shabby. Relatedly, Howard also has the highest Isolated Power (ISO) of any active player in baseball today. Put simply by baseballprospectus.com, "Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter's raw power, in terms of extra bases per AB." So in terms of his reputation as a feared power hitter, he's certainly not overrated.

Now for the other side of his career numbers. First, the strikeouts and walks. As you can see from the chart, Howard struck out over 180 times each season since 2006, including those two ugly 199 K seasons, which was bad enough to set a new record the first time in 2007. He was saved from maintaining that dubious distinction in 2008 by one Mark Reynolds of the Arizona D'backs who seems to have decided he wants to beat his own strikeout record each year. The good news about strikeouts is that 2009 showed meaningful progress over the previous two years. However, anyone who watched the 2009 World Series knows that Howard still has a serious strikeout problem. As for his walks, they have decreased significantly since Howard's ungodly MVP season in 2006, and this trend continued in 2009. For a better analysis than I can do on these numbers, check out "Fall from Ridiculous Pace" over at Philliesflow.com.

The second part of Howard's weaknesses are two issues that are often pointed to as Howard most important flaws: his glaring platoon split and his relative inability to hit curveballs. These are both very real problems for Ryan Howard, and if he can improve on these then I wouldn't be writing this blog post right now. His career line (BA/OBP/SLG) against right-handed pitchers .307/.409/.661. Those are MVP-caliber numbers in any season. Now for the ugly part: against lefties Howard is .226/.310/.444. Those are mediocre numbers in any season. As for the curveball issue, Tom Verducci over at SI started the most recent discussion on this with an insightful column that points out that not only does Ryan Howard struggle mightily against breaking balls, but the problem has only gotten worse over the course of his career. Verducci is well worth the read so I recommend you go do that and I'll move on from this depressing facet of Howard's career.

So there you have it, a small but important sample of the good, the bad, and the ugly of Ryan Howard's career thus far. My final pronouncement is...

Yes, Ryan Howard is overrated, judging by the number of MVP votes he has gotten since his much deserved award in 2006 and the way that many of us Phillies fans think of him. But as his OPS+ and power numbers show, he is still a huge offensive contributor and one of the best sluggers in baseball, and that's saying a lot. You simply can't argue with those power numbers, from the old fashioned RBI and home run totals to the more advanced ISO stat. But for all that power and fear that he elicits in response, Howard has some glaring weaknesses that will be become easier to exploit as more teams figure them out, if they haven't already. If a player can be effectively neutralized, for the most part, simply with left handed pitching and breaking balls, he would have to put up numbers like Howard did in 2006 for me to write those weaknesses off as insignificant. If Howard has another year like that, I'll be happy to revisit this discussion.

Howard still puts up fearsome numbers and carries the Phillies year after year through the month of September, which is a better month to carry the team in than say, April. He also could be even better simply by hitting a few bloopers out to shallow left field now and again to force teams to stop employing the extreme defensive shift on him. He has already shown the ability to do that in spring training this year and that bodes well for the coming season.

Even with his painful weaknesses, I would still take Howard at first base over nearly any other in baseball, and he has certainly established his place in Phillies history already. If he can solve his lefty and breaking ball problems, he will be well on his way to establishing his place in baseball history as a whole, as well as a nice trip to Cooperstown sometime down the road.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Is Werth Worthy of His Worth?

I've decided to take a break from analyzing the minutiae of each spring training game and look at a broader issue: the future of Jayson Werth. The newly bearded one has been making waves because of his appearance, and hopefully will start making a splash with his playing once the season starts.

While it's something of a given to many that the Phillies simply can't afford to sign Werth once he becomes a free agent at the end of 2010, some others have thought more outside the box. One of the most provocative suggestions I've read is by Bill Baer over at Crashburn Alley, who set off a bit of a blogosphere and Twitter firestorm with a column arguing that the Phillies should trade Ryan Howard after the 2010 season so that, among other reasons, we can retain Werth.






 (Left: Photo courtesy of Todd Zolecki;
Right: Photo courtesy of Big League Stew)

There are a number of ways this move could play out: Baer suggests we move Utley to 1st base, Polanco to 2nd, and use the Howard trade to replenish our farm system and/or get a good replacement 3rd baseman. Another option would be to move Ibanez to first base and take advantage of our stellar outfield depth in the farm system as it currently stands. Anyone who has seen Domonic Brown show off just why he was untouchable in the Lee and Halladay deals can attest to this depth. Tyson Gillies, a part of the deal that sent Lee to Seattle, hasn't been slacking either.

The fact that Werth has edged his way into a conversation like this is remarkable. While I don't think pulling off a Howard trade is feasible for the front office without having a revolt on their hands, the idea of it inspired me to read up on just what Werth has done so far to justify all of this buzz.

According to Wikipedia, Jayson Richard Gowan Werth began his career with the following feat: "Werth teamed up with three other pitchers to combine for a no-hitter in a 56–1 victory en route to a third place finish at Nationals." I have no idea what this means. If anyone does, please let me know.

Moving on to reality, due to injuries, particularly due to an A.J. Burnett-induced broken wrist in 2005, Werth was not a full season every day player until 2009. However, he showed some flashes of the player we saw this past season in 2007 and 2008, with 9 consecutive hits over two games over August 26 - 27, 2007 and a 3 homer, 8 RBI game on May 16, 2008. He still had to split time with the one and only knee slapping Geoff Jenkins, who we last saw with a nice leadoff pinch hit double in sixth inning in game 5.5 of the 2008 World Series.

In 2009, Werth was finally given the opportunity to show his stuff. He showed his ability to hit for power, steal bases (including that great steal home in May), field the ball well, and throw some bullets from right field. He made his first all-star team, though that took Charlie tapping him to replace an injured Carlos Beltran. After Werth hit 6th behind Utley, Howard, and Ibanez for much of the season, Charlie started switching him and Ibanez in the lineup to break up the lefty-lefty-left middle of the order, to great effect. Among other accomplishments, Werth had 36 homers and drove in 99 runs, more than a third of his career homers and almost a third of his career RBI total. He also led the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance, one of the more underrated batting stats.

So Jayson Werth had a career year in 2009. That's indisputable. Armed with his new facial hair, he looks poised to continue the success in 2010, and possibly get even better. If that should happen, Werth will deserve every penny of a Jason Bay-like deal (4 years, $66 million) and more. The Phillies will not have that kind of money barring a significant change in the $140 million budget cap for 2011.

I don't want to make the call between Howard and Werth right now, but I will say that it would pain me to see either of them on a different team. Werth has had a breakout year, but Howard has put up truly historic numbers since 2005, especially in the pivotal month of September in the last few seasons. It's up to Werth to prove this year that 2009 was not a fluke, and I believe that he will do so. If he blossoms into the electrifying player that he's capable of becoming, 2010 will be a great season for the Phillies regardless of what happens after that. If Werth has another career year, then we should be so lucky as to choose between two superstars of his and Howard's caliber.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Doc and Mini-Doc: A Tale of Two Pitchers

The Grapefruit League has now begun, with the Phillies playing their official spring training game against some team from the Bronx today. The name of that team escapes me right now, but I'm sure I'll remember it sometime this October. The funniest comment I saw today on that subject:

@djforbes77: #Phillies beat the #Yankees today, 3-2. So now it's 4-3, Yankees, in the best of 9 World Series....Go Phillies!!! You can do it!!!!

If only... Anyhow, much has already been made about the work ethic of Roy Halladay and the effect that it's had on Kyle Kendrick, from his early-rising dedication to his new red Halladay-esque beard. We got to see them both put on some good performances today:

Halladay: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K
Kendrick: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Looks pretty similar, just like the men themselves:










(Left: Photo courtesy of the AP;
Right: Photo courtesy of philly.com)

I couldn't resist putting that photo of Kendrick in, but you'll have to take my word that he looks like a Mini-Halladay. He almost pitched like one too, but giving up that one hit in two innings probably caused him to go and cry because he didn't live up to his man crush's performance in the previous two innings. It's okay, they can always play a little more father-son catch:

(Photo courtesy of Yong Kim/Philadelphia Inquirer)

Maybe Kendrick purposely got himself sent down to the minors to further mirror Roy Halladay's career path. Kendrick already missed having a no hitter broken up on the last out in his second major league appearance, so he's got some catching up to do.

If Kendrick can gain greater confidence and better control than we've seen in the past, he can be a great anchor at the back of our rotation. Today's performance means that the battle for the 5th starter spot has officially begun. Jamie Moyer pitches tomorrow in the B game against Roy Halladay's former team, and people will undoubtedly be comparing his performance to Kendrick's today. The best thing that can happen for the team is that both pitchers perform above expectations and Charlie has a tough choice ahead of him. Ball's in your court, Jamie.

Back with our new ace, Harry Leroy Halladay, he showed some awesome control for this time of year. Hell, he showed some awesome control for any time of year. Out of 24 pitches, 21 were strikes, and almost none of those were over the middle of the plate. To paraphrase myself, if this guy doesn't make you excited yet as a Phillies fan, please consult a doctor.

If pictures are not enough for you, check out some video of Doc pitching today. If you feel butterflies in your stomach watching it, that's okay. It's a common side effect.

If you have ESPN Insider Access, see the initimable Jayson Stark's take on Roy Halladay's transition to his new team.

I almost forgot to include this, but I can't leave out phillygameday.com: 
Report: Halladay retires six Yankee batters on two pitches