I have an idea: let's declare the battle for the 5th starter spot over right now so the winner and loser can start preparing accordingly. Let's not draw this out; it's been clear for a while that Rich Dubee and Charlie Manuel did not come into this spring really considering this battle an even playing field between Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick (and Jose Contreras and Drew Carpenter, who were just mentioned to make it seem more like a real competition). This seems to be the general consensus after his stellar 6.2 inning, 6 K, 1 hit, 0 R, 0 BB outing against the Yankees yesterday. A brief rundown of the sports punditry:
- Anthony DiComo: "Moyer issues bold statement vs. Yankees" (phillies.com)
- David Murphy: "Moyer makes strong pitch to stay in Phillies' rotation" (philly.com)
- Matt Gelb: "Phils' Moyer makes his case" (philly.com)
(Photo Courtesy of the AP/Mike Carlson)
You get the point. With all due respect to Kyle Kendrick, a great comeback story in the making, I have to award the spot to Moyer. Barring a truly horrible spring, the spot was Moyer's to lose simply because of the numbers. And I don't mean his low 80s fastball that still manages to baffle hitters. I mean the fact that he's 47 years young, makes $8 million, and defies the odds in truly historic ways and knows his craft as few others do. This faced several points in his career when others would have quit, but he quietly continued getting to his current 258 wins total. If he manages even a mediocre season this year after three offseason surgeries, I will honestly believe that this man could pitch into his 50s and get 300 wins.
That being said, I like knowing that Kendrick is not just a viable alternative but a good one should Moyer falter. I do this infrequently in sports, but I say that Jamie Moyer deserves the benefit of the doubt. Kendrick can pitch in the bullpen better than Moyer can, and has a minor league option left.
WARNING NERD PARAGRAPH: Look at it as basic economics. Even if Kendrick has an absolute advantage pitching as our 5th starter, he has the greater comparative advantage in the bullpen, and the team on the whole is the better for it. Alright, I'm done nerding out.
Now for a little history, and I'm essentially condensing what Jayson Stark wrote a week ago, which even those poor souls of you out there without ESPN Insider Access can read. If Jamie Moyer starts more than one game this year, he'd be the first non-knuckleballer at age 47 or older to do that. Period. He'll only be the second pitcher ever to do that, counting the knuckleballer Phil Niekro. The only other players to make even one start at such advanced ages were the seemingly eternal Satchel Paige at 58 (yes, you read that right; once again, read this book) and Jack Quinn, also at 47, who played so long ago that he was born in a country that stopped existing in 1918.
The point of all of this is not to say that history should trump skill here. The point is that the Phillies not only have two options for the 5th starter spot, but two good options based on what we are seeing right now. It makes a lot of sense to start with Moyer on a short leash and pull him for Kendrick if he starts to fail as an effective starter. It makes less sense to do it the other way around. It's also easy to be wowed by the recency of Kyle Kendrick's success, but always remember that the last month means a lot less than the last year of a player's career, which itself means a lot less than the sum total of that career. That statement is even more true when the last month consisted of games that didn't count.
As things stand, both of these guys have their pros and their cons. Contracts aside, it's not an easy choice to decide what's best for the team, but my pre-spring training wish of having a real, spirited battle for the 5th starter spot has been fulfilled. It's really anyone's guess which of these two will be the better pitcher this season, but if I had to guess, I'll err on the side of making history.
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