Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Welcome: Offseasoning

Hi all, I figured I'd get this up and running before pitchers and catchers in a week. Phillibustering is a blog about the Philadelphia Phillies from a completely biased fan's perspective. I'll be giving my take on games, trades, signings, and all things related to my hometown team. I'll also be bringing in guest contributors from time to time to give another team's perspective (especially when the Phillies destroy that team). There are also some awesome well-established Phillies blogs out there that will do a much better job than I can breaking down stats, and there will be plenty of links to other analysis when needed (or when I get lazy).

Now that that's out of the way, a few thoughts on this offseason. First, let me just say that the Mets offseason has made me very happy. I'm sorry, but signing Jason Bay and Kelvim Escobar will not revive the team. Maybe they'll be a little luckier on the injury front this season. On that note, in the future they might want to be better informed about surgeries that their stars are undergoing before those surgeries happen. Just sayin'.

On to the Phillies: I like all the signings. Our bench got a nice upgrade, though we could still use a good power bat there. I like the relief pitchers we've added, even if Ruben does seem to have a thing for former Cuban defectors this year. Danys Baez will be reliable and Jose Contreras showed a lot of promise as a reliever with the Rockies at the end of last year. I realize that's a small sample size, but I'm inclined to give Ruben the benefit of the doubt on a pitcher that's one of those low-risk high-reward types he loves so much. I also like the Placido Polanco signing, since we need a situational hitter with good plate discipline. He's also got Gold Glove defensive chops at 2nd base, and I'm going to trust the powers that be in the Phillies organization that he has the throwing range to play 3rd as well or better than Pedro Feliz.

Now the big one. I love that Roy Halladay is a Phillie for the foreseeable future. I love that we got him and $6 million for the prospects that we had to give up. However, I don't like the Cliff Lee part of the blockbuster nearly as much. Not because we should have kept both, though that would be nice, of course. It's mostly because, at first, the two trades were linked because Seattle prospects were going to the Jays, and that seemed reasonable to me. However, when it became a matter of some of our top prospects going to the Jays, the Seattle part of the deal became separate, and I've seen no indication that Cliff Lee was shopped around for better prospects. That being said, all prospects are just that: prospects. None of them is a sure thing, and in the end, we traded away good prospects and got back good prospects. Only time will tell who got the better end of that bargain, no matter what all the scouting reports say.

Some final quick thoughts:
  • We won the World Series without either Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay. We had another ace then: Cole Hamels.
  • If Cole Hamels weren't such a big question mark entering this year, there wouldn't be nearly as much of a desire to keep both Halladay and Lee.

  • Cole Hamels will have a better year this year than last, and a lot of his struggles (though by no means all of them) in 2009 can really be blamed on bad luck. For more on that, see the phenomenal run down of Cole over the last two years at Crashburn Alley: Cole's Curious Conundrum.

  • Also Brad Lidge will have a better season in 2010. He was clearly injured and whether he admitted it or not, and that's now been reportedly taken care of. It's clear that the injuries physically hindered him from pitching up to his full potential, and it was made worse by the fact that he was in denial about the extent of the injuries and tried to push through, losing speed on his fastball and control on his slider. Watch for those returning consistently and then we'll know he's back. Not that I'm saying he'll be 2008 Brad Lidge, but he'll be a reliable closer again.
This is, of course, all speculation. I could be totally wrong about Hamels and Lidge, but I hope I'm not. In the end, you gotta have a little phaith.

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